Race 11A

nym-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Benton Amthor 29.2% 23.4% 18.4% 11.5% 7.8% 5.5% 2.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Brooke Shachoy 12.1% 12.4% 14.5% 13.8% 14.6% 10.0% 9.7% 5.6% 3.8% 2.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
Nick Chisari 3.3% 3.9% 4.0% 7.2% 8.9% 10.6% 9.1% 10.9% 13.9% 12.5% 9.3% 6.1% 0.3%
Phillip Schofield 15.4% 15.5% 15.6% 14.7% 12.2% 9.3% 8.5% 4.2% 2.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Christian Neuman 4.1% 5.5% 5.0% 6.8% 7.6% 9.4% 8.6% 11.6% 12.5% 13.1% 10.3% 5.0% 0.5%
Jeremy McCauley 6.0% 6.2% 9.1% 7.1% 10.6% 11.6% 11.9% 10.9% 9.2% 8.2% 6.8% 2.3% 0.1%
Owen Ward 4.0% 4.8% 4.1% 7.5% 6.1% 7.4% 10.2% 10.3% 11.8% 12.7% 12.5% 7.5% 1.1%
Townsend Morey 3.0% 4.2% 3.0% 4.5% 5.4% 7.2% 9.0% 10.1% 12.1% 14.2% 17.6% 8.8% 0.9%
Caroline Sandoval 3.6% 4.5% 4.3% 6.6% 7.0% 8.0% 10.6% 10.9% 13.7% 11.4% 12.0% 7.2% 0.2%
Connor Mraz 15.4% 15.6% 15.2% 12.6% 11.2% 10.2% 7.4% 6.9% 2.5% 2.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
William Sunkler 3.0% 3.6% 5.3% 5.8% 6.5% 7.9% 9.2% 12.5% 11.4% 12.1% 13.2% 8.9% 0.6%
Ethan Hall1 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 1.1% 0.9% 2.6% 7.9% 85.4%
Lauren Manney 0.8% 0.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.8% 2.7% 2.9% 4.7% 5.0% 8.6% 13.7% 45.9% 10.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.