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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College3.06+1.76vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.20+2.35vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.43+0.95vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.71+4.36vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.00+2.57vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.06+1.52vs Predicted
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7Rochester Institute of Technology-0.58+4.43vs Predicted
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8SUNY Stony Brook1.41-1.47vs Predicted
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9Princeton University2.35-4.86vs Predicted
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10Stevens Institute of Technology0.72-1.54vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.80-2.81vs Predicted
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12Villanova University0.91-3.94vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute-0.71-1.06vs Predicted
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14Columbia University-1.14-1.41vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-2.36-0.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.76SUNY Maritime College3.060.3%1st Place
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4.35Cornell University2.200.1%1st Place
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3.95Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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8.36U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.710.0%1st Place
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7.57Fordham University1.000.0%1st Place
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7.52SUNY Maritime College1.060.0%1st Place
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11.43Rochester Institute of Technology-0.580.0%1st Place
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6.53SUNY Stony Brook1.410.1%1st Place
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4.14Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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8.46Stevens Institute of Technology0.720.0%1st Place
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8.19Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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8.06Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
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11.94Webb Institute-0.710.0%1st Place
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12.59Columbia University-1.140.0%1st Place
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14.16Rochester Institute of Technology-2.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benton Amthor | 31.3% | 23.7% | 16.3% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 13.8% | 15.4% | 14.4% | 12.2% | 13.7% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Phillip Schofield | 15.0% | 16.9% | 17.0% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Murphy | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Christian Neuman | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Douglas Cochran | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 18.1% | 22.6% | 18.0% | 6.6% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 14.3% | 14.4% | 16.6% | 14.9% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Townsend Morey | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 0.1% |
| William Sunkler | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 5.7% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Owen Ward | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Alexander Resio | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 24.6% | 24.7% | 8.8% |
| Emily Ringrose | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 19.0% | 31.5% | 16.9% |
| Ethan Hall1 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 15.5% | 66.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.