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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College1.88+3.15vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College1.69+2.49vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.43+0.12vs Predicted
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5Washington College2.11-1.19vs Predicted
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6Princeton University0.75+0.88vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.45-1.76vs Predicted
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8Columbia University-0.05+0.43vs Predicted
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9Villanova University1.57-4.12vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook-0.03-1.30vs Predicted
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11Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17+0.10vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.74-1.73vs Predicted
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13Stevens Institute of Technology-0.32-3.68vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology-1.47-2.47vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute-2.57-1.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.15SUNY Maritime College1.880.1%1st Place
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4.49SUNY Maritime College1.690.1%1st Place
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3.12Cornell University2.430.3%1st Place
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3.81Washington College2.110.2%1st Place
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6.88Princeton University0.750.0%1st Place
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5.24Cornell University1.450.1%1st Place
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8.43Columbia University-0.050.0%1st Place
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4.88Villanova University1.570.1%1st Place
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8.7SUNY Stony Brook-0.030.0%1st Place
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11.1Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
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10.27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
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9.32Stevens Institute of Technology-0.320.0%1st Place
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11.53Rochester Institute of Technology-1.470.0%1st Place
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13.08Webb Institute-2.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cormac Murphy | 13.3% | 16.9% | 14.8% | 12.9% | 13.7% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Kahler | 12.1% | 13.3% | 13.7% | 12.9% | 13.7% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Meredith Moran | 25.8% | 19.9% | 16.5% | 14.3% | 10.5% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 17.4% | 16.7% | 15.6% | 14.7% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 3.3% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 15.2% | 12.9% | 9.2% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Tom O'Shea | 9.5% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 14.1% | 12.1% | 14.4% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Lee | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 14.6% | 15.5% | 14.1% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 0.6% |
| Max Gillette | 10.8% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 13.9% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 12.4% | 14.8% | 17.2% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 0.8% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 4.2% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 14.1% | 20.3% | 24.1% | 10.7% |
| Tanner Comer | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 18.6% | 18.2% | 14.4% | 5.2% |
| Alex Wiggins | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 11.5% | 13.2% | 15.8% | 15.0% | 13.6% | 7.8% | 2.1% |
| Benjamin Knisely | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 11.3% | 18.8% | 29.5% | 16.6% |
| Elliot Ocheltree | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 8.5% | 15.5% | 63.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.