← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Washington College2.11+2.67vs Predicted
-
2SUNY Maritime College1.88+2.03vs Predicted
-
3Cornell University1.45+2.06vs Predicted
-
4Cornell University2.43-0.86vs Predicted
-
6SUNY Maritime College1.69-1.35vs Predicted
-
7Princeton University0.75-0.17vs Predicted
-
8Columbia University-0.05+0.32vs Predicted
-
9SUNY Stony Brook-0.55+0.60vs Predicted
-
10Villanova University1.57-5.10vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.74-0.83vs Predicted
-
12Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17-1.00vs Predicted
-
13Rochester Institute of Technology-1.47-1.48vs Predicted
-
14Stevens Institute of Technology-0.32-4.92vs Predicted
-
15Webb Institute-2.57-1.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.67Washington College2.110.2%1st Place
-
4.03SUNY Maritime College1.880.1%1st Place
-
5.06Cornell University1.450.1%1st Place
-
3.14Cornell University2.430.2%1st Place
-
4.65SUNY Maritime College1.690.1%1st Place
-
6.83Princeton University0.750.0%1st Place
-
8.32Columbia University-0.050.0%1st Place
-
9.6SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
-
4.9Villanova University1.570.1%1st Place
-
10.17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
-
11.0Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
-
11.52Rochester Institute of Technology-1.470.0%1st Place
-
9.08Stevens Institute of Technology-0.320.0%1st Place
-
13.02Webb Institute-2.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stewart Gurnell | 18.2% | 19.1% | 15.5% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cormac Murphy | 14.8% | 15.4% | 15.5% | 14.3% | 13.5% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tom O'Shea | 10.0% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 14.6% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Meredith Moran | 24.4% | 21.2% | 17.2% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Kahler | 9.4% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 15.1% | 13.4% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 14.9% | 13.8% | 13.8% | 9.5% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Sean Lee | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 13.1% | 15.1% | 14.3% | 13.8% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Samantha Mislinski | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 13.0% | 15.6% | 15.8% | 13.8% | 10.5% | 3.3% |
| Max Gillette | 10.5% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 12.9% | 14.2% | 12.4% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tanner Comer | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 14.8% | 17.2% | 16.9% | 12.8% | 5.9% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 20.7% | 22.2% | 10.6% |
| Benjamin Knisely | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 8.8% | 13.3% | 18.9% | 28.0% | 15.7% |
| Alex Wiggins | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 10.2% | 16.5% | 18.3% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 6.8% | 1.3% |
| Elliot Ocheltree | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 8.1% | 16.3% | 62.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.