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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.43+2.12vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College1.69+2.44vs Predicted
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3Princeton University0.75+3.75vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.45+1.18vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.88-0.69vs Predicted
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6Washington College2.11-2.16vs Predicted
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8Columbia University-0.05+0.45vs Predicted
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9Villanova University1.57-4.12vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook-0.03-1.33vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.74-0.68vs Predicted
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12Stevens Institute of Technology-0.32-2.63vs Predicted
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13Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17-1.92vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute-2.57-0.95vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-1.47-3.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.12Cornell University2.430.3%1st Place
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4.44SUNY Maritime College1.690.1%1st Place
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6.75Princeton University0.750.0%1st Place
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5.18Cornell University1.450.1%1st Place
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4.31SUNY Maritime College1.880.1%1st Place
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3.84Washington College2.110.2%1st Place
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8.45Columbia University-0.050.0%1st Place
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4.88Villanova University1.570.1%1st Place
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8.67SUNY Stony Brook-0.030.0%1st Place
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10.32U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
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9.37Stevens Institute of Technology-0.320.0%1st Place
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11.08Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
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13.05Webb Institute-2.570.0%1st Place
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11.54Rochester Institute of Technology-1.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meredith Moran | 26.5% | 20.6% | 17.3% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Kahler | 12.6% | 13.3% | 13.6% | 12.2% | 14.7% | 12.7% | 10.0% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 14.0% | 16.6% | 12.5% | 8.8% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Tom O'Shea | 7.8% | 8.6% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cormac Murphy | 12.4% | 14.3% | 13.4% | 16.1% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 17.0% | 15.3% | 15.9% | 16.9% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Lee | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 15.3% | 14.6% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 0.5% |
| Max Gillette | 10.9% | 12.4% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 11.6% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 11.0% | 18.1% | 15.6% | 14.3% | 8.8% | 3.9% | 0.9% |
| Tanner Comer | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 6.8% | 11.0% | 13.6% | 15.9% | 19.0% | 16.2% | 4.9% |
| Alex Wiggins | 1.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 13.6% | 15.6% | 15.4% | 13.5% | 8.8% | 1.7% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 11.0% | 16.6% | 20.8% | 20.7% | 11.9% |
| Elliot Ocheltree | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 8.3% | 14.8% | 64.8% |
| Benjamin Knisely | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 19.8% | 30.3% | 15.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.