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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College1.88+3.11vs Predicted
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2Villanova University1.57+2.70vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College1.69+1.53vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.45+1.15vs Predicted
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5Washington College2.11-1.18vs Predicted
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6Princeton University0.75+0.79vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.43-3.98vs Predicted
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9Stevens Institute of Technology-0.32+0.08vs Predicted
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10-0.05-1.45vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.74-0.83vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17-1.02vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.55-3.34vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology-1.47-2.58vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute-2.57-2.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.11SUNY Maritime College1.880.1%1st Place
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4.7Villanova University1.570.1%1st Place
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4.53SUNY Maritime College1.690.1%1st Place
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5.15Cornell University1.450.1%1st Place
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3.82Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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6.79Princeton University0.750.0%1st Place
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3.02Cornell University2.430.3%1st Place
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9.08Stevens Institute of Technology-0.320.0%1st Place
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8.55-0.050.0%1st Place
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10.17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
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10.98Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
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9.66SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
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11.42Rochester Institute of Technology-1.470.0%1st Place
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13.0Webb Institute-2.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cormac Murphy | 14.6% | 15.3% | 13.8% | 16.4% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Gillette | 10.6% | 13.2% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 13.9% | 14.0% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Kahler | 12.7% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 14.0% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tom O'Shea | 7.6% | 9.5% | 13.7% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 15.8% | 12.1% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 15.0% | 17.8% | 16.8% | 14.2% | 13.6% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 4.5% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 15.3% | 14.7% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Meredith Moran | 27.5% | 19.6% | 16.6% | 14.8% | 10.4% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Wiggins | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 15.0% | 14.6% | 14.6% | 12.2% | 7.2% | 1.8% |
| Sean Lee | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 14.7% | 16.4% | 16.3% | 12.1% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 0.9% |
| Tanner Comer | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 13.9% | 18.2% | 16.1% | 13.8% | 5.2% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 15.1% | 20.8% | 21.7% | 10.1% |
| Samantha Mislinski | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 16.7% | 14.7% | 14.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% |
| Benjamin Knisely | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 12.4% | 18.2% | 27.4% | 16.0% |
| Elliot Ocheltree | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 14.7% | 62.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.