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📊 Prediction Accuracy
71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.43+2.10vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.45+3.03vs Predicted
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3Washington College2.11+0.71vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College1.69+0.62vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.88-0.69vs Predicted
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6Villanova University1.57-1.03vs Predicted
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8Columbia University-0.05+0.49vs Predicted
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9Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17+1.94vs Predicted
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10Stevens Institute of Technology-0.32-0.63vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.74-0.68vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-0.03-3.24vs Predicted
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13Rochester Institute of Technology-1.47-1.35vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute-2.57-0.97vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.75-8.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.1Cornell University2.430.3%1st Place
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5.03Cornell University1.450.1%1st Place
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3.71Washington College2.110.2%1st Place
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4.62SUNY Maritime College1.690.1%1st Place
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4.31SUNY Maritime College1.880.1%1st Place
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4.97Villanova University1.570.1%1st Place
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8.49Columbia University-0.050.0%1st Place
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10.94Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
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9.37Stevens Institute of Technology-0.320.0%1st Place
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10.32U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
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8.76SUNY Stony Brook-0.030.0%1st Place
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11.65Rochester Institute of Technology-1.470.0%1st Place
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13.03Webb Institute-2.570.0%1st Place
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6.69Princeton University0.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meredith Moran | 26.8% | 21.1% | 16.5% | 12.6% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tom O'Shea | 8.9% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 12.9% | 11.2% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 8.5% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 19.1% | 17.4% | 13.9% | 15.3% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Kahler | 10.8% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 14.0% | 13.4% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cormac Murphy | 11.0% | 14.5% | 15.9% | 15.2% | 12.3% | 12.5% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Gillette | 10.0% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 15.1% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Lee | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 12.1% | 15.2% | 14.1% | 14.2% | 9.4% | 3.9% | 0.4% |
| Elliot Tindall | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 19.6% | 22.1% | 11.8% |
| Alex Wiggins | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 8.9% | 14.4% | 17.9% | 17.6% | 12.5% | 7.0% | 2.1% |
| Tanner Comer | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 7.0% | 10.9% | 14.7% | 16.3% | 19.0% | 16.4% | 4.1% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 15.5% | 16.8% | 14.0% | 9.3% | 4.5% | 1.1% |
| Benjamin Knisely | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 13.1% | 19.5% | 28.6% | 17.3% |
| Elliot Ocheltree | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 7.6% | 16.7% | 63.1% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 15.4% | 16.3% | 12.1% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.