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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College1.69+3.58vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.45+3.13vs Predicted
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3Washington College2.11+0.68vs Predicted
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4Fordham University0.91+2.56vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.43-1.80vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.88-1.84vs Predicted
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7Columbia University-0.05+2.19vs Predicted
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8Princeton University0.75-0.90vs Predicted
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9Stevens Institute of Technology-0.32+0.97vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook-0.03-0.71vs Predicted
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11-0.95+0.61vs Predicted
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12Villanova University-0.08-2.46vs Predicted
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13Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17-0.78vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.74-2.94vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-1.47-2.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.58SUNY Maritime College1.690.1%1st Place
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5.13Cornell University1.450.1%1st Place
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3.68Washington College2.110.2%1st Place
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6.56Fordham University0.910.1%1st Place
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3.2Cornell University2.430.2%1st Place
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4.16SUNY Maritime College1.880.1%1st Place
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9.19Columbia University-0.050.0%1st Place
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7.1Princeton University0.750.1%1st Place
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9.97Stevens Institute of Technology-0.320.0%1st Place
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9.29SUNY Stony Brook-0.030.0%1st Place
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11.61-0.950.0%1st Place
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9.54Villanova University-0.080.0%1st Place
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12.22Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
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11.06U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
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12.7Rochester Institute of Technology-1.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Kahler | 13.2% | 13.3% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tom O'Shea | 8.5% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 18.9% | 16.0% | 17.1% | 16.3% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Adipietro | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Meredith Moran | 24.4% | 21.0% | 16.8% | 13.5% | 10.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cormac Murphy | 14.5% | 14.7% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 13.8% | 10.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Lee | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 2.6% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Alex Wiggins | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 12.5% | 8.6% | 3.3% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 2.8% |
| Jack Kirk | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 14.0% | 18.2% | 16.8% |
| Jack Murray | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 6.6% | 2.1% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 11.5% | 14.0% | 20.7% | 24.4% |
| Tanner Comer | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 16.0% | 15.4% | 10.1% |
| Benjamin Knisely | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 12.9% | 17.1% | 37.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.