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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College2.11+2.67vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College1.69+2.51vs Predicted
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3Fordham University0.91+3.47vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.45+1.21vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.88-0.79vs Predicted
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6SUNY Stony Brook-0.03+3.23vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.43-3.89vs Predicted
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8Columbia University-0.05+1.32vs Predicted
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9-0.95+2.60vs Predicted
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10Stevens Institute of Technology-0.32+0.04vs Predicted
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11Princeton University0.75-3.89vs Predicted
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12Villanova University-0.08-2.46vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.74-1.78vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17-1.92vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-1.47-2.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.67Washington College2.110.2%1st Place
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4.51SUNY Maritime College1.690.1%1st Place
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6.47Fordham University0.910.1%1st Place
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5.21Cornell University1.450.1%1st Place
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4.21SUNY Maritime College1.880.1%1st Place
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9.23SUNY Stony Brook-0.030.0%1st Place
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3.11Cornell University2.430.3%1st Place
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9.32Columbia University-0.050.0%1st Place
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11.6-0.950.0%1st Place
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10.04Stevens Institute of Technology-0.320.0%1st Place
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7.11Princeton University0.750.0%1st Place
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9.54Villanova University-0.080.0%1st Place
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11.22U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
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12.08Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
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12.66Rochester Institute of Technology-1.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stewart Gurnell | 19.6% | 19.0% | 13.3% | 15.3% | 12.5% | 8.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Kahler | 11.8% | 13.9% | 14.6% | 13.4% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Adipietro | 5.1% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Tom O'Shea | 9.9% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cormac Murphy | 14.7% | 14.4% | 14.3% | 14.4% | 14.1% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 4.7% | 2.3% |
| Meredith Moran | 25.7% | 19.7% | 19.6% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Lee | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 5.9% | 2.2% |
| Jack Kirk | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 12.9% | 15.5% | 19.9% | 13.5% |
| Alex Wiggins | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 12.7% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 4.8% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Jack Murray | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 14.9% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 5.9% | 2.9% |
| Tanner Comer | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 10.9% | 13.9% | 14.7% | 15.4% | 13.0% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 19.2% | 24.3% |
| Benjamin Knisely | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 17.5% | 36.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.