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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.70+3.44vs Predicted
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2Maine Maritime Academy2.81+4.65vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.40+2.06vs Predicted
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4Salve Regina University3.84+0.03vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island3.07+0.91vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.30+1.93vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University2.70-0.23vs Predicted
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8Middlebury College1.85+0.80vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College3.02-3.10vs Predicted
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10Salve Regina University3.92-6.18vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.41-3.25vs Predicted
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12Brandeis University0.67-1.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.44Tufts University3.700.2%1st Place
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6.65Maine Maritime Academy2.810.0%1st Place
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5.06Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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4.03Salve Regina University3.840.2%1st Place
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5.91University of Rhode Island3.070.1%1st Place
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7.93Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.300.0%1st Place
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6.77Northeastern University2.700.1%1st Place
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8.8Middlebury College1.850.0%1st Place
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5.9Connecticut College3.020.1%1st Place
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3.82Salve Regina University3.920.2%1st Place
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7.75Bowdoin College2.410.0%1st Place
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10.94Brandeis University0.670.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massimo Soriano | 15.2% | 13.3% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Poole | 4.6% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 2.2% |
| Nikolas Osvalds | 12.2% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Clancy | 15.9% | 19.1% | 14.5% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Weston Barlow | 8.4% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 1.2% |
| Tevis Nichols | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 13.7% | 15.9% | 16.5% | 6.9% |
| Ryan White | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 13.9% | 11.6% | 7.6% | 3.2% |
| Nicholas Dragone | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 26.8% | 14.0% |
| Wells Bacon | 6.8% | 7.6% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 0.4% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 19.6% | 16.8% | 15.7% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Fiske | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 17.1% | 13.9% | 5.6% |
| John Fonte | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 14.0% | 66.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.