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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.64+4.45vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.18+1.89vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.43+3.14vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.11+3.24vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.77+3.50vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.64-0.46vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.44+2.51vs Predicted
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8University of Miami1.97-0.18vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.39+0.70vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College1.75-1.35vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan1.32-1.02vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.15-4.60vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University1.86-4.64vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.06-0.81vs Predicted
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15Boston College1.70-6.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.45College of Charleston2.640.1%1st Place
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3.89Brown University3.180.2%1st Place
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6.14University of Pennsylvania2.430.1%1st Place
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7.24U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.110.1%1st Place
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8.5Tufts University1.770.1%1st Place
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5.54Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.640.1%1st Place
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9.51Fordham University1.440.0%1st Place
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7.82University of Miami1.970.1%1st Place
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9.7George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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8.65Bowdoin College1.750.0%1st Place
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9.98University of Michigan1.320.0%1st Place
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7.4University of Rhode Island2.150.1%1st Place
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8.36Georgetown University1.860.1%1st Place
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13.19Christopher Newport University0.060.0%1st Place
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8.63Boston College1.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marian Frances Williams | 12.4% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Hannah Steadman | 22.2% | 18.3% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lenox Butcher | 9.1% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Emma Snead | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 1.2% |
| Abbie Carlson | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.5% |
| Dana Haig | 10.2% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Payton Canavan | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 6.9% |
| Kaitlyn DeLisser | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 1.4% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 7.2% |
| Kelsey Slack | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 3.9% |
| Allison Marozza | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 16.9% | 9.7% |
| Rebecca Read | 5.9% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Riley Kloc | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 3.6% |
| Emily Key | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 12.0% | 56.5% |
| Emma Batcher | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 7.4% | 3.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.