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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.64+4.42vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.18+1.91vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.43+3.10vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.15+3.15vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.64+0.70vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College1.75+2.56vs Predicted
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7Boston College1.70+1.63vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University1.86+0.16vs Predicted
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9University of Miami1.97-1.28vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.11-2.61vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.44-1.37vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.77-3.31vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.39-3.06vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan1.32-4.09vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.06-1.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.42College of Charleston2.640.1%1st Place
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3.91Brown University3.180.2%1st Place
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6.1University of Pennsylvania2.430.1%1st Place
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7.15University of Rhode Island2.150.1%1st Place
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5.7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.640.1%1st Place
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8.56Bowdoin College1.750.0%1st Place
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8.63Boston College1.700.1%1st Place
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8.16Georgetown University1.860.0%1st Place
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7.72University of Miami1.970.1%1st Place
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7.39U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.110.1%1st Place
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9.63Fordham University1.440.0%1st Place
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8.69Tufts University1.770.0%1st Place
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9.94George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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9.91University of Michigan1.320.0%1st Place
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13.1Christopher Newport University0.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marian Frances Williams | 12.0% | 13.3% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| Hannah Steadman | 21.0% | 18.4% | 15.1% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lenox Butcher | 8.8% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Rebecca Read | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Dana Haig | 11.6% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Kelsey Slack | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 6.3% | 2.9% |
| Emma Batcher | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 3.8% |
| Riley Kloc | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% |
| Kaitlyn DeLisser | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 1.4% |
| Emma Snead | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 1.5% |
| Payton Canavan | 3.4% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 9.4% |
| Abbie Carlson | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 3.3% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 9.9% |
| Allison Marozza | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 16.2% | 8.0% |
| Emily Key | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 13.5% | 55.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.