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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.18+2.95vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.43+4.08vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.15+4.04vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.77+4.47vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University1.86+3.20vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.39+3.76vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.64-1.44vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston2.64-2.43vs Predicted
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9University of Miami1.97-1.33vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.44-0.32vs Predicted
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11Boston College1.70-2.21vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.11-4.49vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan1.32-2.83vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College1.75-5.52vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.06-1.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.95Brown University3.180.2%1st Place
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6.08University of Pennsylvania2.430.1%1st Place
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7.04University of Rhode Island2.150.1%1st Place
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8.47Tufts University1.770.0%1st Place
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8.2Georgetown University1.860.1%1st Place
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9.76George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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5.56Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.640.1%1st Place
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5.57College of Charleston2.640.1%1st Place
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7.67University of Miami1.970.1%1st Place
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9.68Fordham University1.440.0%1st Place
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8.79Boston College1.700.0%1st Place
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7.51U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.110.1%1st Place
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10.17University of Michigan1.320.0%1st Place
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8.48Bowdoin College1.750.0%1st Place
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13.08Christopher Newport University0.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannah Steadman | 20.8% | 19.4% | 13.4% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lenox Butcher | 9.6% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Rebecca Read | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Abbie Carlson | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 4.1% |
| Riley Kloc | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 2.5% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 13.9% | 6.8% |
| Dana Haig | 11.9% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Marian Frances Williams | 11.5% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Kaitlyn DeLisser | 5.6% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Payton Canavan | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 7.3% |
| Emma Batcher | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 5.7% |
| Emma Snead | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| Allison Marozza | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 14.7% | 10.9% |
| Kelsey Slack | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 2.5% |
| Emily Key | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 7.7% | 12.7% | 55.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.