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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.18+2.94vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.11+5.17vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.64+2.52vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University1.96+3.79vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston2.64+0.66vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.43+0.23vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College1.75+1.47vs Predicted
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8University of Michigan1.32+1.98vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.44+0.57vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.39-0.15vs Predicted
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11Boston College1.70-2.20vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.15-4.59vs Predicted
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13Tufts University1.77-4.25vs Predicted
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14University of Miami1.97-6.26vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.06-1.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.94Brown University3.180.2%1st Place
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7.17U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.110.1%1st Place
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5.52Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.640.1%1st Place
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7.79Georgetown University1.960.1%1st Place
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5.66College of Charleston2.640.1%1st Place
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6.23University of Pennsylvania2.430.1%1st Place
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8.47Bowdoin College1.750.1%1st Place
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9.98University of Michigan1.320.0%1st Place
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9.57Fordham University1.440.0%1st Place
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9.85George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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8.8Boston College1.700.0%1st Place
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7.41University of Rhode Island2.150.1%1st Place
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8.75Tufts University1.770.0%1st Place
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7.74University of Miami1.970.1%1st Place
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13.13Christopher Newport University0.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannah Steadman | 20.7% | 20.8% | 13.4% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Emma Snead | 6.0% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 1.1% |
| Dana Haig | 11.9% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Carly Broussard | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 2.3% |
| Marian Frances Williams | 11.1% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Lenox Butcher | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Kelsey Slack | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 3.2% |
| Allison Marozza | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 14.5% | 9.3% |
| Payton Canavan | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 5.9% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 14.0% | 7.9% |
| Emma Batcher | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 5.5% |
| Rebecca Read | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| Abbie Carlson | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 4.2% |
| Kaitlyn DeLisser | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 1.2% |
| Emily Key | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 11.4% | 57.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.