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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.04+3.92vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.89+3.46vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont2.80+2.75vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+3.45vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University1.75+4.77vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.09+2.17vs Predicted
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7McGill University1.58+3.26vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University1.74+1.81vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.40-2.05vs Predicted
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10Yale University2.28-2.64vs Predicted
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11Boston University2.02-2.58vs Predicted
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12Harvard University0.61+2.10vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.18-1.44vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island2.28-6.43vs Predicted
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15Olin College of Engineering-0.37+1.27vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.84-3.09vs Predicted
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17Bentley University-0.13-1.18vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College1.14-6.19vs Predicted
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19Middlebury College-0.14-3.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.92Brown University3.040.1%1st Place
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5.46Brown University2.890.1%1st Place
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5.75University of Vermont2.800.1%1st Place
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7.45Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.310.1%1st Place
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9.77Roger Williams University1.750.0%1st Place
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8.17Yale University2.090.1%1st Place
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10.26McGill University1.580.0%1st Place
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9.81Salve Regina University1.740.0%1st Place
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6.95Tufts University2.400.1%1st Place
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7.36Yale University2.280.1%1st Place
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8.42Boston University2.020.1%1st Place
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14.1Harvard University0.610.0%1st Place
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11.56Northeastern University1.180.0%1st Place
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7.57University of Rhode Island2.280.1%1st Place
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16.27Olin College of Engineering-0.370.0%1st Place
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12.91Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.840.0%1st Place
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15.82Bentley University-0.130.0%1st Place
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11.81Bowdoin College1.140.0%1st Place
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15.64Middlebury College-0.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Murphy | 14.2% | 15.0% | 12.5% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Belda | 12.0% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Harden | 12.6% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Ped | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Chase Reynolds | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Sam Tobin | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Edward Coleman | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Nils Tullberg | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Talia Toland | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Davies | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Raymond Groble IV | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Dickey | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 14.2% | 14.0% | 15.8% | 6.7% |
| Carter Brock | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| Michael O'Flaherty | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Jagielski | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 18.6% | 35.7% |
| Stephen Poirier | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 9.2% | 3.8% |
| Dane Phippen | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 10.0% | 13.2% | 20.9% | 25.9% |
| Teagan Cunningham | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 1.8% |
| Nicholas Leshaw | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 17.3% | 18.5% | 23.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.