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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.04+3.90vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.40+5.15vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.30+4.53vs Predicted
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4Boston University2.02+4.56vs Predicted
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5Salve Regina University1.74+4.89vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.28+1.45vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.51-0.37vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.28-0.31vs Predicted
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9McGill University1.58+1.13vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.18+1.85vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College1.75-1.37vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.09-3.40vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University1.75-3.58vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont2.80-8.26vs Predicted
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15Bentley University-0.13+0.80vs Predicted
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16Harvard University0.61-2.22vs Predicted
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17Middlebury College-0.14-1.04vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.84-4.95vs Predicted
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19Olin College of Engineering-0.37-2.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.9Brown University3.040.2%1st Place
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7.15Tufts University2.400.1%1st Place
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7.53Brown University2.300.1%1st Place
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8.56Boston University2.020.0%1st Place
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9.89Salve Regina University1.740.0%1st Place
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7.45University of Rhode Island2.280.1%1st Place
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6.63Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.510.1%1st Place
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7.69Yale University2.280.1%1st Place
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10.13McGill University1.580.0%1st Place
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11.85Northeastern University1.180.0%1st Place
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9.63Bowdoin College1.750.0%1st Place
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8.6Yale University2.090.1%1st Place
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9.42Roger Williams University1.750.0%1st Place
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5.74University of Vermont2.800.1%1st Place
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15.8Bentley University-0.130.0%1st Place
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13.78Harvard University0.610.0%1st Place
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15.96Middlebury College-0.140.0%1st Place
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13.05Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.840.0%1st Place
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16.25Olin College of Engineering-0.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Murphy | 15.1% | 14.5% | 13.1% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Talia Toland | 7.9% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Rachel Foster | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Raymond Groble IV | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nils Tullberg | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Michael O'Flaherty | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Crew Fritsch | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Davies | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Edward Coleman | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Carter Brock | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 5.5% | 1.6% |
| Kelsey Slack | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Sam Tobin | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Chase Reynolds | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Thomas Harden | 11.4% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dane Phippen | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 14.3% | 20.1% | 26.7% |
| Matthew Dickey | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 15.4% | 12.6% | 6.1% |
| Nicholas Leshaw | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 9.7% | 14.1% | 21.1% | 27.7% |
| Stephen Poirier | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 4.9% |
| Thomas Jagielski | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 13.1% | 22.4% | 31.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.