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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.40+5.51vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont2.80+3.28vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.04+1.59vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.28+3.15vs Predicted
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5McGill University1.58+4.38vs Predicted
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6Boston University2.02+2.22vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.51-0.71vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College1.75+0.81vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.09-1.02vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.30-3.11vs Predicted
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11Yale University2.28-3.77vs Predicted
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12Harvard University0.61+0.73vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University1.74-3.83vs Predicted
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14Middlebury College-0.14+0.61vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.18-3.98vs Predicted
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16Olin College of Engineering-0.37-0.95vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.84-4.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.51Tufts University2.400.1%1st Place
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5.28University of Vermont2.800.1%1st Place
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4.59Brown University3.040.2%1st Place
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7.15University of Rhode Island2.280.1%1st Place
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9.38McGill University1.580.0%1st Place
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8.22Boston University2.020.1%1st Place
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6.29Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.510.1%1st Place
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8.81Bowdoin College1.750.1%1st Place
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7.98Yale University2.090.1%1st Place
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6.89Brown University2.300.1%1st Place
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7.23Yale University2.280.1%1st Place
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12.73Harvard University0.610.0%1st Place
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9.17Salve Regina University1.740.0%1st Place
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14.61Middlebury College-0.140.0%1st Place
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11.02Northeastern University1.180.0%1st Place
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15.05Olin College of Engineering-0.370.0%1st Place
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12.09Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talia Toland | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Harden | 13.3% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Murphy | 16.3% | 15.6% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael O'Flaherty | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Edward Coleman | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1.0% |
| Raymond Groble IV | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Crew Fritsch | 9.5% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kelsey Slack | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Sam Tobin | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Rachel Foster | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Davies | 8.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Dickey | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 18.8% | 18.0% | 9.4% |
| Nils Tullberg | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 0.5% |
| Nicholas Leshaw | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 24.9% | 34.0% |
| Carter Brock | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 12.4% | 7.6% | 3.2% |
| Thomas Jagielski | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 11.2% | 21.0% | 43.2% |
| Stephen Poirier | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 14.2% | 15.1% | 12.9% | 7.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.