Race 1B

great-herring-pond-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

56.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Pearl Lattanzi 8.0% 9.7% 8.8% 9.7% 11.3% 12.0% 11.0% 10.9% 7.7% 6.3% 2.6% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ryan Palardy 12.3% 12.9% 13.8% 11.3% 10.3% 11.2% 10.3% 8.6% 5.1% 2.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Clinton Hegarty 21.6% 17.7% 15.8% 13.7% 11.7% 8.8% 4.8% 2.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Thomas Johnson 6.1% 7.9% 8.9% 8.5% 8.3% 12.7% 12.1% 11.6% 10.2% 7.9% 3.7% 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elena Gonick 6.8% 6.1% 8.0% 8.2% 10.8% 11.0% 12.6% 12.2% 9.8% 7.2% 4.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
William George 12.7% 13.7% 14.3% 13.5% 12.5% 9.2% 7.9% 6.9% 5.5% 2.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Meghan Haviland 9.6% 8.0% 8.4% 9.4% 11.4% 8.5% 11.7% 12.2% 9.3% 7.3% 2.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Patrick Mulcahy 15.9% 14.3% 13.2% 14.1% 11.5% 10.6% 8.7% 5.2% 3.8% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tucker Braun 2.0% 2.7% 3.2% 2.8% 3.6% 4.5% 6.4% 7.5% 13.1% 13.8% 15.1% 9.7% 8.5% 4.6% 2.1% 0.4%
Ayden Watt 1.6% 1.8% 2.5% 2.7% 3.3% 2.5% 4.2% 6.4% 8.9% 13.3% 16.8% 15.4% 10.1% 6.5% 3.2% 0.8%
Jack Eddy 1.1% 1.0% 0.7% 1.3% 1.2% 1.4% 1.8% 2.9% 4.2% 6.7% 8.6% 13.3% 14.2% 15.3% 17.2% 9.1%
Julia Fairbank 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 1.2% 2.3% 1.4% 2.9% 4.1% 6.4% 9.4% 10.2% 14.4% 16.0% 16.2% 13.5%
Kennard MacVaugh 0.9% 0.3% 0.8% 0.9% 1.1% 1.2% 2.3% 2.8% 5.5% 6.4% 10.9% 12.8% 13.9% 17.3% 13.6% 9.3%
Colby Brennan 0.6% 1.9% 0.4% 2.0% 1.0% 2.4% 2.9% 4.3% 6.3% 9.6% 10.9% 14.5% 18.4% 11.6% 8.6% 4.6%
Anastasia Mastrocola 0.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.9% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.3% 2.9% 5.6% 7.5% 11.9% 13.1% 16.8% 21.2% 12.6%
Liam Harkins 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 1.8% 2.0% 3.7% 5.1% 5.8% 11.5% 17.7% 49.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.