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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Villanova University0.91+7.90vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+1.62vs Predicted
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3Washington College2.11+2.29vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College1.29+3.86vs Predicted
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5Princeton University2.35-0.52vs Predicted
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6Fordham University0.99+3.03vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College1.06+1.65vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-0.03vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64-2.19vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook1.41-2.61vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute-1.16+3.65vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.53-4.89vs Predicted
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13U. S. Military Academy-1.19+1.69vs Predicted
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14Stevens Institute of Technology0.72-4.09vs Predicted
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15Drexel University-0.16-2.64vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.00-7.07vs Predicted
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17Princeton University-1.51-1.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.9Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
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3.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.2%1st Place
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5.29Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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7.86SUNY Maritime College1.290.1%1st Place
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4.48Princeton University2.350.2%1st Place
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9.03Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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8.65SUNY Maritime College1.060.0%1st Place
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7.97U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.220.1%1st Place
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6.81U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.1%1st Place
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7.39SUNY Stony Brook1.410.1%1st Place
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14.65Webb Institute-1.160.0%1st Place
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7.11Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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14.69U. S. Military Academy-1.190.0%1st Place
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9.91Stevens Institute of Technology0.720.0%1st Place
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12.36Drexel University-0.160.0%1st Place
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8.93Fordham University1.000.0%1st Place
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15.36Princeton University-1.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Ward | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Charles Carraway | 21.7% | 20.2% | 13.5% | 13.9% | 10.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 12.1% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Wilcenski | 5.4% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 16.7% | 14.4% | 14.9% | 12.7% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Alfano | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 4.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Christian Neuman | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| David Pearce | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Green | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Flanagan | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 7.9% | 19.9% | 27.4% | 26.2% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Henry Jensen | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 8.7% | 19.5% | 27.5% | 26.8% |
| Townsend Morey | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 13.1% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Haley Clemson | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 17.8% | 19.5% | 11.6% | 4.7% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| William Mandelbaum | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 13.4% | 25.5% | 40.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.