← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+2.58vs Predicted
-
2Washington College2.11+3.17vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+5.11vs Predicted
-
4SUNY Maritime College1.29+3.82vs Predicted
-
5Villanova University0.91+4.01vs Predicted
-
6Stevens Institute of Technology0.72+3.94vs Predicted
-
7Fordham University0.99+1.91vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64-1.48vs Predicted
-
9Cornell University1.53-1.77vs Predicted
-
10Fordham University1.00-1.28vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Military Academy-1.19+3.73vs Predicted
-
12SUNY Maritime College1.06-3.41vs Predicted
-
13SUNY Stony Brook1.41-5.43vs Predicted
-
14Drexel University-0.16-1.54vs Predicted
-
15Princeton University2.35-10.41vs Predicted
-
16Webb Institute-1.16-1.27vs Predicted
-
17Princeton University-1.51-1.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.58Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.2%1st Place
-
5.17Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
-
8.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.220.0%1st Place
-
7.82SUNY Maritime College1.290.1%1st Place
-
9.01Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
-
9.94Stevens Institute of Technology0.720.0%1st Place
-
8.91Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
-
6.52U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.1%1st Place
-
7.23Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
-
8.72Fordham University1.000.0%1st Place
-
14.73U. S. Military Academy-1.190.0%1st Place
-
8.59SUNY Maritime College1.060.0%1st Place
-
7.57SUNY Stony Brook1.410.1%1st Place
-
12.46Drexel University-0.160.0%1st Place
-
4.59Princeton University2.350.2%1st Place
-
14.73Webb Institute-1.160.0%1st Place
-
15.33Princeton University-1.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Carraway | 23.1% | 17.0% | 15.7% | 14.1% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 10.7% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Pearce | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| John Wilcenski | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Owen Ward | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Townsend Morey | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 6.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Matthew Alfano | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Green | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Henry Jensen | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 8.2% | 18.4% | 27.3% | 28.2% |
| Christian Neuman | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Haley Clemson | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 12.0% | 18.5% | 18.9% | 11.2% | 4.9% |
| Connor Mraz | 16.2% | 14.0% | 13.9% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Flanagan | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 19.6% | 26.7% | 25.3% |
| William Mandelbaum | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 7.1% | 13.4% | 25.2% | 40.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.