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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+2.56vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.53+4.97vs Predicted
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3Washington College2.11+2.25vs Predicted
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4Villanova University0.91+5.14vs Predicted
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5Fordham University0.99+3.79vs Predicted
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6SUNY Stony Brook1.41+1.63vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64-0.34vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.29-0.30vs Predicted
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9Drexel University-0.16+3.52vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College1.06-1.49vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute-1.16+3.66vs Predicted
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12Princeton University2.35-7.37vs Predicted
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13Stevens Institute of Technology0.72-3.10vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.00-5.06vs Predicted
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15U. S. Military Academy-1.19-0.31vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-7.90vs Predicted
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17Princeton University-1.51-1.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.2%1st Place
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6.97Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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5.25Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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9.14Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
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8.79Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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7.63SUNY Stony Brook1.410.1%1st Place
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6.66U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.1%1st Place
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7.7SUNY Maritime College1.290.1%1st Place
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12.52Drexel University-0.160.0%1st Place
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8.51SUNY Maritime College1.060.0%1st Place
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14.66Webb Institute-1.160.0%1st Place
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4.63Princeton University2.350.2%1st Place
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9.9Stevens Institute of Technology0.720.0%1st Place
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8.94Fordham University1.000.0%1st Place
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14.69U. S. Military Academy-1.190.0%1st Place
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8.1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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15.35Princeton University-1.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Carraway | 23.4% | 18.4% | 15.9% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 11.9% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Ward | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Alfano | 2.5% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Green | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Wilcenski | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Haley Clemson | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 10.5% | 18.7% | 19.7% | 12.0% | 4.0% |
| Christian Neuman | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Ryan Flanagan | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 9.4% | 18.1% | 28.0% | 26.1% |
| Connor Mraz | 15.3% | 14.8% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Townsend Morey | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 13.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 4.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Henry Jensen | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 8.9% | 19.8% | 24.5% | 28.2% |
| David Pearce | 3.8% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| William Mandelbaum | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 6.6% | 12.9% | 26.5% | 40.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.