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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+2.59vs Predicted
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2Princeton University2.35+2.50vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.53+4.08vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64+2.67vs Predicted
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5Washington College2.11+0.12vs Predicted
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6SUNY Stony Brook1.41+1.60vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.00+1.85vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-0.05vs Predicted
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9Villanova University0.91+0.31vs Predicted
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10Fordham University0.99-1.23vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College1.06-2.29vs Predicted
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12Stevens Institute of Technology0.72-2.27vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College1.29-5.07vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute-1.16+0.74vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-1.51+0.19vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy-1.19-1.20vs Predicted
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17Drexel University-0.16-4.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.59Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.2%1st Place
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4.5Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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7.08Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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6.67U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.1%1st Place
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5.12Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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7.6SUNY Stony Brook1.410.1%1st Place
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8.85Fordham University1.000.0%1st Place
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7.95U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.220.1%1st Place
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9.31Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
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8.77Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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8.71SUNY Maritime College1.060.0%1st Place
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9.73Stevens Institute of Technology0.720.0%1st Place
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7.93SUNY Maritime College1.290.1%1st Place
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14.74Webb Institute-1.160.0%1st Place
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15.19Princeton University-1.510.0%1st Place
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14.8U. S. Military Academy-1.190.0%1st Place
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12.45Drexel University-0.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Carraway | 22.7% | 18.9% | 15.0% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 15.0% | 15.5% | 12.2% | 14.0% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 5.9% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Green | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 12.0% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| David Pearce | 5.9% | 4.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Owen Ward | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 4.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Matthew Alfano | 2.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Christian Neuman | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Townsend Morey | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| John Wilcenski | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Flanagan | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 7.9% | 19.4% | 28.1% | 26.2% |
| William Mandelbaum | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 13.1% | 24.4% | 40.9% |
| Henry Jensen | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 9.5% | 19.9% | 27.5% | 25.9% |
| Haley Clemson | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 15.6% | 20.3% | 12.4% | 5.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.