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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+2.50vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.53+4.96vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64+3.67vs Predicted
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4Princeton University2.35+0.65vs Predicted
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5Stevens Institute of Technology0.72+4.68vs Predicted
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6SUNY Stony Brook1.41+1.66vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+1.15vs Predicted
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8Fordham University0.99+0.71vs Predicted
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9Washington College2.11-3.65vs Predicted
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10Villanova University0.91-0.94vs Predicted
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11Drexel University-0.16+1.39vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College1.06-3.43vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.00-4.04vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy-1.19+0.83vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College1.29-7.14vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute-1.16-1.30vs Predicted
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17Princeton University-1.51-1.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.2%1st Place
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6.96Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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6.67U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.1%1st Place
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4.65Princeton University2.350.2%1st Place
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9.68Stevens Institute of Technology0.720.0%1st Place
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7.66SUNY Stony Brook1.410.1%1st Place
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8.15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.220.1%1st Place
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8.71Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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5.35Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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9.06Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
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12.39Drexel University-0.160.0%1st Place
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8.57SUNY Maritime College1.060.0%1st Place
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8.96Fordham University1.000.0%1st Place
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14.83U. S. Military Academy-1.190.0%1st Place
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7.86SUNY Maritime College1.290.1%1st Place
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14.7Webb Institute-1.160.0%1st Place
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15.31Princeton University-1.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Carraway | 24.2% | 17.7% | 15.6% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Green | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 15.3% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Townsend Morey | 2.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| David Pearce | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Alfano | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 9.8% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Ward | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Haley Clemson | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 18.3% | 19.5% | 12.2% | 4.5% |
| Christian Neuman | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Jensen | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 9.5% | 18.7% | 27.4% | 27.6% |
| John Wilcenski | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Flanagan | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 19.5% | 25.2% | 26.2% |
| William Mandelbaum | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 7.4% | 14.6% | 25.0% | 39.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.