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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+2.53vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64+4.55vs Predicted
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3Princeton University2.35+1.52vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.11+1.20vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.29+2.59vs Predicted
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6SUNY Stony Brook1.41+1.53vs Predicted
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7Villanova University0.91+2.08vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.53-1.16vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College1.06-0.36vs Predicted
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10Drexel University-1.07+4.60vs Predicted
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11Stevens Institute of Technology0.72-1.20vs Predicted
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12Fordham University0.99-3.30vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.09-0.78vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.00-5.15vs Predicted
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15U. S. Military Academy-1.19-0.25vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute-1.16-1.14vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.71-7.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.2%1st Place
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6.55U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.1%1st Place
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4.52Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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5.2Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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7.59SUNY Maritime College1.290.0%1st Place
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7.53SUNY Stony Brook1.410.1%1st Place
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9.08Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
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6.84Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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8.64SUNY Maritime College1.060.0%1st Place
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14.6Drexel University-1.070.0%1st Place
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9.8Stevens Institute of Technology0.720.0%1st Place
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8.7Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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12.22Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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8.85Fordham University1.000.0%1st Place
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14.75U. S. Military Academy-1.190.0%1st Place
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14.86Webb Institute-1.160.0%1st Place
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9.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Carraway | 23.6% | 17.9% | 15.6% | 13.2% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Green | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 14.7% | 14.7% | 14.5% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 12.6% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Wilcenski | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Owen Ward | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Christian Neuman | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Stephen Young | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 9.2% | 17.5% | 27.2% | 25.6% |
| Townsend Morey | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Matthew Alfano | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Benjamin Rosenzweig | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 15.9% | 17.9% | 11.7% | 4.8% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 2.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Henry Jensen | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 4.7% | 8.5% | 13.4% | 25.8% | 32.8% |
| Ryan Flanagan | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 8.4% | 17.0% | 22.8% | 33.6% |
| Connor Murphy | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.