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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64+5.45vs Predicted
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2Princeton University2.35+2.43vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+0.57vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College1.06+4.56vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.29+2.63vs Predicted
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6Stevens Institute of Technology0.72+3.87vs Predicted
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7Fordham University0.99+1.81vs Predicted
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8Villanova University0.91+0.87vs Predicted
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9Washington College2.11-3.71vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.00-1.34vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.53-3.86vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.71-2.27vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook1.41-5.54vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.09-1.66vs Predicted
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15Drexel University-1.07-0.52vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy-1.19-1.10vs Predicted
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17Webb Institute-1.16-2.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.45U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.1%1st Place
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4.43Princeton University2.350.2%1st Place
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3.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.2%1st Place
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8.56SUNY Maritime College1.060.0%1st Place
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7.63SUNY Maritime College1.290.0%1st Place
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9.87Stevens Institute of Technology0.720.0%1st Place
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8.81Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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8.87Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
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5.29Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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8.66Fordham University1.000.0%1st Place
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7.14Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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9.73U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.710.0%1st Place
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7.46SUNY Stony Brook1.410.1%1st Place
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12.34Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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14.48Drexel University-1.070.0%1st Place
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14.9U. S. Military Academy-1.190.0%1st Place
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14.8Webb Institute-1.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Green | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 15.4% | 15.8% | 12.1% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Carraway | 22.1% | 19.2% | 15.9% | 13.3% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Neuman | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| John Wilcenski | 4.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Townsend Morey | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 0.7% |
| Matthew Alfano | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Owen Ward | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 10.3% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Connor Murphy | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 0.3% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Rosenzweig | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 15.9% | 15.8% | 14.4% | 4.9% |
| Stephen Young | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 14.5% | 24.5% | 28.5% |
| Henry Jensen | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 8.0% | 16.2% | 24.6% | 33.0% |
| Ryan Flanagan | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 16.8% | 24.3% | 31.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.