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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+2.49vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.53+4.87vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64+3.60vs Predicted
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4Princeton University2.35+0.58vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.29+2.60vs Predicted
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6Villanova University0.91+3.20vs Predicted
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7Fordham University0.99+1.81vs Predicted
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8Stevens Institute of Technology0.72+1.49vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.00-0.15vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College1.06-1.52vs Predicted
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11SUNY Stony Brook1.41-3.52vs Predicted
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12Drexel University-1.07+2.60vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.71-3.17vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.09-1.69vs Predicted
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15Washington College2.11-9.85vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy-1.19-1.15vs Predicted
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17Webb Institute-1.16-2.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.2%1st Place
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6.87Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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6.6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.1%1st Place
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4.58Princeton University2.350.2%1st Place
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7.6SUNY Maritime College1.290.0%1st Place
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9.2Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
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8.81Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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9.49Stevens Institute of Technology0.720.0%1st Place
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8.85Fordham University1.000.0%1st Place
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8.48SUNY Maritime College1.060.0%1st Place
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7.48SUNY Stony Brook1.410.1%1st Place
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14.6Drexel University-1.070.0%1st Place
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9.83U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.710.0%1st Place
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12.31Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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5.15Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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14.85U. S. Military Academy-1.190.0%1st Place
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14.79Webb Institute-1.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Carraway | 24.4% | 18.2% | 14.7% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Green | 6.5% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 15.9% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 12.5% | 13.5% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Wilcenski | 4.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Owen Ward | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Alfano | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Townsend Morey | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Christian Neuman | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Young | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 15.1% | 26.6% | 28.1% |
| Connor Murphy | 3.3% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 0.9% |
| Benjamin Rosenzweig | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 15.4% | 18.5% | 12.2% | 4.9% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 12.4% | 12.8% | 13.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Jensen | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 8.3% | 16.7% | 23.9% | 32.6% |
| Ryan Flanagan | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 15.1% | 24.2% | 32.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.