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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+2.69vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56+5.02vs Predicted
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3Princeton University2.35+1.67vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College1.29+4.00vs Predicted
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5Stevens Institute of Technology0.72+4.77vs Predicted
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6Villanova University0.91+3.44vs Predicted
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7Washington College2.11-1.70vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64-1.31vs Predicted
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9SUNY Stony Brook1.41-1.26vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College1.06-1.32vs Predicted
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11Fordham University0.99-1.89vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.53-4.85vs Predicted
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13Drexel University-1.07+1.65vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute-1.16+0.85vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-0.09-2.66vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy-1.19-1.10vs Predicted
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17Fordham University1.00-7.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.2%1st Place
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7.02U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.1%1st Place
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4.67Princeton University2.350.2%1st Place
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8.0SUNY Maritime College1.290.1%1st Place
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9.77Stevens Institute of Technology0.720.0%1st Place
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9.44Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
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5.3Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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6.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.1%1st Place
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7.74SUNY Stony Brook1.410.1%1st Place
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8.68SUNY Maritime College1.060.0%1st Place
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9.11Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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7.15Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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14.65Drexel University-1.070.0%1st Place
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14.85Webb Institute-1.160.0%1st Place
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12.34Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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14.9U. S. Military Academy-1.190.0%1st Place
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9.01Fordham University1.000.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Carraway | 21.9% | 17.4% | 15.8% | 12.5% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 16.0% | 13.8% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Wilcenski | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Townsend Morey | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Owen Ward | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 5.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 11.6% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Green | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Christian Neuman | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Matthew Alfano | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 5.7% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Stephen Young | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 8.1% | 18.4% | 25.1% | 29.7% |
| Ryan Flanagan | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 15.8% | 25.5% | 32.3% |
| Benjamin Rosenzweig | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 16.1% | 17.9% | 11.8% | 5.5% |
| Henry Jensen | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 8.3% | 16.0% | 28.1% | 30.2% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.