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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+2.65vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56+5.06vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64+3.78vs Predicted
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4Villanova University0.91+5.21vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.29+2.80vs Predicted
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6Princeton University2.35-1.22vs Predicted
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7SUNY Stony Brook1.41+0.60vs Predicted
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8Stevens Institute of Technology0.72+1.74vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.53-1.68vs Predicted
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10Washington College2.11-4.73vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.00-1.91vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College1.06-3.29vs Predicted
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13Fordham University0.99-3.91vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy-1.19+0.92vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-0.09-2.65vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute-1.16-1.11vs Predicted
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17Drexel University-1.07-2.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.65Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.2%1st Place
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7.06U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.1%1st Place
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6.78U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.1%1st Place
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9.21Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
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7.8SUNY Maritime College1.290.0%1st Place
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4.78Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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7.6SUNY Stony Brook1.410.1%1st Place
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9.74Stevens Institute of Technology0.720.0%1st Place
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7.32Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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5.27Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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9.09Fordham University1.000.0%1st Place
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8.71SUNY Maritime College1.060.0%1st Place
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9.09Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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14.92U. S. Military Academy-1.190.0%1st Place
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12.35Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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14.89Webb Institute-1.160.0%1st Place
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14.74Drexel University-1.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Carraway | 24.0% | 16.2% | 15.0% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Green | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Owen Ward | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| John Wilcenski | 4.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 13.4% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Townsend Morey | 3.9% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 5.3% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 11.0% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 12.2% | 8.8% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Christian Neuman | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Alfano | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Jensen | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 16.1% | 24.6% | 34.2% |
| Benjamin Rosenzweig | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 10.7% | 15.9% | 18.5% | 12.2% | 5.2% |
| Ryan Flanagan | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 8.8% | 16.3% | 25.1% | 32.1% |
| Stephen Young | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 8.9% | 17.2% | 26.9% | 27.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.