Race 11B

nevins

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lilly Myers 37.7% 24.4% 15.1% 10.0% 5.9% 3.4% 1.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Patrick Modin 5.9% 8.3% 8.3% 9.7% 8.9% 8.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.9% 7.9% 7.0% 5.3% 2.6% 2.2% 0.9% 0.1%
Anna Flaherty 10.4% 10.1% 11.4% 12.2% 10.7% 10.8% 9.5% 9.0% 5.6% 3.9% 2.9% 1.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
William Sesack 6.9% 12.9% 9.6% 9.5% 11.4% 12.3% 8.1% 7.0% 7.7% 5.4% 5.0% 2.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
David Adipietro 6.9% 7.6% 9.5% 9.4% 9.6% 10.3% 10.0% 8.4% 7.8% 6.8% 6.4% 3.1% 2.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Finn Rauch 7.3% 6.8% 11.6% 10.0% 11.9% 7.6% 12.1% 7.9% 5.8% 6.5% 5.1% 3.0% 3.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0%
James Ozaki 4.1% 5.9% 4.6% 6.0% 7.7% 5.9% 7.1% 8.6% 9.2% 9.8% 7.8% 8.6% 7.4% 4.6% 2.3% 0.4%
Bryan Lawrence 2.0% 2.9% 2.6% 3.5% 2.8% 5.0% 4.5% 6.8% 7.3% 7.4% 7.6% 10.4% 11.8% 12.3% 9.2% 3.9%
Eric Heilshorn 6.4% 6.0% 8.4% 8.1% 8.6% 10.4% 9.3% 8.0% 8.0% 8.1% 6.2% 4.5% 4.5% 2.0% 1.5% 0.0%
Connor Larson 2.2% 3.1% 3.8% 3.1% 3.1% 4.4% 5.4% 5.7% 7.2% 7.7% 10.6% 11.9% 12.1% 10.4% 6.7% 2.6%
Jonathan Gorman 2.9% 3.2% 4.9% 4.0% 5.1% 6.2% 4.8% 6.6% 8.4% 7.7% 8.8% 12.0% 9.7% 8.2% 6.3% 1.2%
Joe Cooner 0.7% 1.5% 0.6% 2.1% 1.6% 2.9% 2.0% 2.9% 4.4% 5.0% 6.3% 7.0% 8.6% 13.7% 23.0% 17.7%
Andrew Vernon 3.3% 3.5% 4.9% 6.9% 6.3% 7.1% 7.5% 8.2% 9.0% 9.3% 8.7% 8.4% 6.5% 7.4% 2.1% 0.9%
Abigail Proko 1.9% 2.1% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 3.6% 5.1% 7.3% 6.2% 5.9% 8.5% 11.0% 13.3% 12.3% 8.9% 4.7%
Michael Dasaro 1.3% 1.4% 1.3% 1.6% 2.4% 1.5% 3.2% 2.7% 4.0% 6.1% 6.7% 7.8% 10.1% 16.4% 20.8% 12.7%
Gil Hankinson 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 1.6% 1.2% 2.4% 2.4% 3.4% 4.6% 7.7% 17.2% 55.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.