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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.54+1.60vs Predicted
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2Fordham University0.91+4.46vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.82+1.05vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.36+3.41vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.18-0.25vs Predicted
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7Princeton University-0.35+3.59vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76-0.93vs Predicted
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9SUNY Stony Brook-0.03+0.41vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College1.02-3.86vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute0.72-3.83vs Predicted
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12Drexel University-0.42-1.37vs Predicted
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13Stevens Institute of Technology-0.92-0.91vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.18-4.11vs Predicted
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15Washington College0.23-6.45vs Predicted
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16Villanova University-1.09-3.33vs Predicted
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17U. S. Military Academy-2.01-2.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.6Cornell University2.540.3%1st Place
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6.46Fordham University0.910.1%1st Place
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4.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.820.2%1st Place
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8.41U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.360.0%1st Place
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5.75SUNY Maritime College1.180.1%1st Place
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10.59Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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7.07U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.1%1st Place
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9.41SUNY Stony Brook-0.030.0%1st Place
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6.14SUNY Maritime College1.020.1%1st Place
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7.17Webb Institute0.720.1%1st Place
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10.63Drexel University-0.420.0%1st Place
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12.09Stevens Institute of Technology-0.920.0%1st Place
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9.89Princeton University-0.180.0%1st Place
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8.55Washington College0.230.0%1st Place
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12.67Villanova University-1.090.0%1st Place
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14.52U. S. Military Academy-2.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilly Myers | 34.3% | 24.7% | 17.3% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Adipietro | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Lawless | 15.8% | 15.2% | 17.2% | 14.5% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Ozaki | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| William Sesack | 7.8% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 5.2% |
| Patrick Modin | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 5.1% | 1.3% |
| Finn Rauch | 7.5% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Eric Heilshorn | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Abigail Proko | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 13.5% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 3.7% |
| Michael Dasaro | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 15.7% | 18.7% | 13.7% |
| Connor Larson | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 5.9% | 2.8% |
| Andrew Vernon | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| Joe Cooner | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 15.6% | 24.1% | 16.4% |
| Gil Hankinson | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 17.5% | 55.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.