Race 1A

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Richie Gordon 7.5% 7.8% 10.8% 8.3% 9.3% 10.1% 10.2% 10.3% 10.5% 7.9% 5.1% 2.1% 0.1%
Gerard Eastman 8.8% 9.6% 9.7% 10.7% 9.2% 11.9% 9.9% 9.6% 7.4% 7.4% 4.2% 1.6% 0.0%
Kyle Easton 22.6% 19.5% 15.5% 12.4% 10.1% 8.3% 5.4% 3.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Aidan Molesky 3.5% 4.9% 4.2% 5.2% 5.4% 7.5% 8.7% 8.6% 12.7% 14.2% 15.0% 9.7% 0.4%
David Perez 4.6% 4.7% 5.5% 6.4% 6.6% 8.0% 7.8% 9.6% 10.6% 13.9% 14.4% 7.7% 0.2%
Sherman Thompson 3.8% 4.3% 5.0% 4.3% 6.0% 8.5% 7.0% 9.1% 10.6% 16.1% 14.6% 10.4% 0.3%
Tyler Mowry 12.9% 12.8% 11.8% 12.8% 11.3% 8.7% 9.9% 8.3% 5.7% 2.9% 2.2% 0.7% 0.0%
Christian Spencer 12.8% 14.0% 13.0% 10.6% 12.2% 11.5% 10.2% 6.7% 4.3% 2.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Ella Withington 6.6% 6.1% 6.7% 7.7% 7.9% 8.1% 9.5% 10.2% 12.1% 9.4% 11.5% 3.9% 0.3%
Meredith Moran 11.6% 10.9% 9.8% 13.8% 10.6% 8.3% 10.1% 9.0% 6.4% 4.8% 3.8% 0.9% 0.0%
Adam Krzeszowski 4.1% 4.1% 6.7% 6.2% 9.0% 7.3% 7.6% 10.7% 11.5% 13.7% 11.7% 7.1% 0.3%
Andrew Vernon 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 2.3% 1.8% 3.5% 4.1% 6.2% 5.7% 14.5% 52.2% 4.7%
Stephen Turocy 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 1.5% 3.2% 93.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.