Race 2A

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Christian Spencer 13.2% 13.0% 12.1% 12.9% 10.1% 11.5% 8.4% 6.9% 6.6% 2.7% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1%
David Perez 4.3% 4.7% 5.0% 6.0% 7.2% 6.5% 8.3% 11.4% 10.4% 14.1% 14.2% 7.7% 0.2%
Kyle Easton 21.5% 19.6% 16.9% 12.9% 8.8% 7.8% 5.7% 3.9% 1.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Tyler Mowry 12.5% 11.2% 13.2% 11.1% 11.9% 9.7% 9.7% 7.7% 6.3% 4.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Aidan Molesky 4.4% 4.6% 4.4% 5.9% 6.3% 7.7% 8.7% 7.9% 12.1% 13.2% 14.6% 10.0% 0.2%
Meredith Moran 10.5% 13.3% 10.1% 11.3% 11.4% 10.5% 8.6% 9.1% 5.9% 5.3% 3.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Ella Withington 7.3% 5.7% 8.5% 8.2% 6.2% 8.0% 10.6% 10.8% 10.7% 10.6% 10.2% 3.0% 0.2%
Sherman Thompson 2.8% 5.3% 4.7% 4.3% 6.5% 6.6% 7.9% 9.9% 11.9% 14.0% 15.8% 10.0% 0.3%
Gerard Eastman 9.3% 8.5% 8.9% 9.9% 11.9% 10.3% 11.1% 8.5% 7.7% 7.6% 5.2% 1.1% 0.0%
Richie Gordon 9.1% 7.5% 9.4% 9.0% 10.2% 10.5% 9.3% 9.1% 9.4% 8.1% 5.4% 2.9% 0.1%
Adam Krzeszowski 4.0% 5.5% 5.8% 6.1% 7.4% 8.0% 9.3% 10.7% 11.2% 11.8% 12.1% 7.7% 0.4%
Andrew Vernon 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 2.3% 2.0% 2.7% 2.3% 3.7% 6.0% 6.2% 14.2% 52.8% 4.9%
Stephen Turocy 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 3.8% 93.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.