Race 3A

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Kyle Easton 22.6% 18.9% 16.7% 12.7% 9.0% 8.5% 4.9% 3.4% 1.2% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Gerard Eastman 8.6% 8.8% 10.2% 10.2% 11.6% 9.1% 11.1% 9.3% 9.1% 5.3% 5.3% 1.4% 0.0%
Tyler Mowry 10.9% 12.8% 12.9% 11.5% 11.6% 11.4% 9.0% 7.8% 6.5% 3.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
Aidan Molesky 3.6% 4.1% 5.1% 5.3% 5.5% 7.4% 8.7% 8.9% 10.5% 15.2% 13.8% 11.7% 0.2%
Richie Gordon 8.3% 9.7% 10.1% 8.7% 8.6% 9.3% 9.8% 12.3% 9.0% 7.3% 4.6% 2.3% 0.0%
Ella Withington 6.3% 7.6% 5.9% 8.0% 9.7% 8.7% 8.9% 10.9% 10.1% 10.5% 8.8% 4.6% 0.0%
Sherman Thompson 4.9% 4.1% 5.5% 5.7% 5.6% 6.5% 7.1% 8.4% 11.0% 14.6% 16.0% 10.2% 0.4%
Christian Spencer 13.5% 13.7% 11.3% 13.2% 12.0% 9.9% 9.4% 6.3% 5.6% 3.1% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Adam Krzeszowski 4.7% 4.4% 4.8% 6.2% 6.6% 7.7% 7.7% 10.6% 13.1% 10.5% 15.9% 7.3% 0.5%
David Perez 5.6% 4.1% 4.3% 6.9% 6.1% 8.4% 9.2% 8.4% 10.5% 13.2% 13.5% 9.5% 0.3%
Andrew Vernon 1.0% 0.8% 1.5% 1.7% 2.4% 3.4% 4.0% 2.8% 6.2% 8.9% 14.6% 48.3% 4.4%
Meredith Moran 9.9% 10.8% 11.7% 9.8% 11.3% 9.6% 10.0% 10.8% 6.7% 5.6% 2.9% 0.9% 0.0%
Stephen Turocy 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.9% 3.1% 94.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.