Race 4A

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Kyle Easton 23.0% 18.2% 16.7% 12.7% 10.7% 7.0% 5.0% 2.9% 2.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Tyler Mowry 11.0% 13.9% 11.8% 10.9% 11.8% 11.3% 9.1% 8.1% 5.7% 3.2% 2.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Meredith Moran 8.7% 12.0% 11.8% 11.2% 10.5% 11.3% 10.0% 8.6% 6.8% 5.9% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Christian Spencer 14.0% 12.3% 11.3% 12.9% 11.6% 9.9% 9.7% 7.3% 5.4% 3.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Richie Gordon 8.6% 8.3% 10.0% 9.4% 10.2% 8.3% 10.3% 11.7% 7.7% 7.8% 6.0% 1.6% 0.1%
Aidan Molesky 4.4% 4.1% 4.5% 5.3% 6.6% 7.8% 7.8% 7.9% 13.4% 13.1% 15.4% 9.3% 0.4%
David Perez 5.1% 5.5% 5.7% 6.3% 5.4% 6.3% 8.2% 9.3% 11.6% 14.4% 14.8% 7.1% 0.3%
Gerard Eastman 9.5% 9.4% 9.6% 9.2% 9.8% 12.3% 11.4% 9.6% 7.4% 5.6% 4.4% 1.8% 0.0%
Sherman Thompson 4.0% 4.2% 4.1% 6.2% 5.2% 6.8% 6.9% 8.4% 11.9% 14.2% 16.0% 11.3% 0.8%
Ella Withington 6.9% 5.8% 7.4% 6.2% 8.9% 10.2% 9.7% 9.7% 10.5% 11.4% 8.8% 4.4% 0.1%
Adam Krzeszowski 3.9% 4.8% 5.9% 7.8% 7.2% 7.0% 8.1% 11.7% 11.9% 12.6% 11.6% 7.2% 0.3%
Andrew Vernon 0.8% 1.3% 1.2% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 3.6% 4.5% 5.3% 6.5% 14.9% 51.7% 4.7%
Stephen Turocy 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 1.2% 4.0% 93.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.