Race 5A

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Meredith Moran 10.6% 11.7% 9.9% 11.6% 10.6% 9.8% 10.2% 8.7% 8.0% 4.6% 3.3% 0.9% 0.1%
Kyle Easton 23.0% 18.8% 16.1% 12.8% 10.6% 6.8% 5.7% 2.9% 1.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Gerard Eastman 7.4% 9.7% 10.4% 10.9% 10.7% 9.0% 10.1% 10.5% 8.6% 7.1% 3.9% 1.5% 0.2%
Tyler Mowry 11.9% 11.5% 13.2% 12.2% 11.7% 10.2% 8.7% 7.6% 7.5% 3.6% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0%
David Perez 5.1% 4.8% 4.8% 6.5% 7.2% 8.1% 7.4% 9.0% 10.5% 13.2% 15.2% 8.0% 0.2%
Adam Krzeszowski 5.7% 3.8% 4.9% 6.2% 7.5% 7.2% 8.7% 10.4% 11.6% 11.8% 15.5% 6.4% 0.3%
Richie Gordon 9.3% 9.0% 8.9% 8.0% 7.8% 11.9% 9.8% 10.6% 8.3% 8.5% 5.8% 2.1% 0.0%
Aidan Molesky 4.1% 4.6% 4.9% 4.1% 6.7% 6.7% 7.5% 10.7% 10.7% 15.1% 15.4% 9.3% 0.2%
Christian Spencer 12.1% 12.8% 13.7% 12.2% 11.6% 10.1% 8.6% 6.7% 5.5% 4.5% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Sherman Thompson 3.8% 5.1% 4.1% 4.9% 6.1% 7.6% 8.3% 9.1% 11.5% 13.2% 15.3% 10.4% 0.6%
Ella Withington 6.1% 7.0% 7.6% 8.3% 7.2% 10.3% 11.6% 10.1% 10.0% 10.1% 7.7% 3.9% 0.1%
Andrew Vernon 0.8% 1.1% 1.4% 2.2% 2.0% 2.3% 3.1% 3.5% 6.3% 6.7% 13.0% 53.0% 4.6%
Stephen Turocy 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 4.0% 93.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.