Race 8A

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Kyle Easton 21.9% 19.8% 17.3% 12.1% 9.0% 8.6% 4.6% 2.7% 2.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Ella Withington 6.4% 6.3% 5.6% 8.6% 8.4% 9.0% 10.8% 10.2% 10.8% 11.5% 8.6% 3.7% 0.1%
Sherman Thompson 3.1% 2.7% 4.3% 6.3% 7.0% 6.5% 9.0% 8.9% 10.7% 14.9% 17.2% 9.0% 0.4%
David Perez 4.0% 5.1% 4.3% 5.9% 6.7% 7.9% 10.0% 8.5% 10.6% 13.1% 16.0% 7.6% 0.3%
Christian Spencer 15.2% 13.6% 13.1% 10.6% 11.1% 10.4% 9.5% 5.6% 5.0% 3.9% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Aidan Molesky 3.7% 5.1% 4.7% 5.2% 6.7% 6.6% 7.3% 10.5% 11.1% 13.9% 15.4% 9.6% 0.2%
Tyler Mowry 13.2% 12.6% 12.3% 10.6% 13.6% 9.1% 8.3% 7.1% 6.8% 4.1% 1.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Gerard Eastman 8.8% 10.7% 9.5% 10.4% 8.9% 11.5% 10.3% 11.5% 7.5% 4.9% 3.9% 2.1% 0.0%
Meredith Moran 9.6% 10.9% 11.0% 11.3% 10.5% 11.4% 10.2% 8.3% 6.3% 5.5% 3.5% 1.5% 0.0%
Richie Gordon 8.6% 8.3% 9.1% 10.3% 9.3% 9.5% 8.5% 11.4% 10.0% 6.8% 5.9% 2.2% 0.1%
Adam Krzeszowski 4.4% 3.7% 6.7% 7.4% 6.9% 7.8% 7.3% 10.7% 13.7% 11.8% 11.7% 7.5% 0.4%
Andrew Vernon 1.0% 1.1% 2.0% 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 3.7% 4.5% 5.0% 7.9% 13.1% 52.2% 4.8%
Stephen Turocy 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 3.7% 93.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.