Race 10A

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Kyle Easton 22.1% 19.6% 14.5% 13.8% 11.2% 6.8% 5.7% 2.6% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Christian Spencer 12.9% 13.5% 12.1% 13.6% 12.3% 8.6% 9.1% 7.5% 4.4% 3.9% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Gerard Eastman 7.7% 9.5% 10.4% 9.4% 10.4% 10.1% 11.4% 10.2% 9.5% 6.1% 4.1% 1.0% 0.2%
Sherman Thompson 3.7% 3.5% 4.6% 5.0% 6.1% 7.6% 8.4% 9.4% 9.9% 15.7% 15.3% 10.4% 0.4%
Aidan Molesky 4.3% 4.3% 5.2% 6.5% 7.0% 6.6% 7.1% 7.6% 12.2% 13.8% 15.5% 9.7% 0.2%
David Perez 4.7% 4.5% 6.0% 5.5% 7.3% 6.2% 9.4% 11.4% 11.1% 12.3% 13.8% 7.5% 0.3%
Ella Withington 6.6% 7.4% 7.9% 7.5% 5.7% 8.8% 10.3% 10.0% 11.6% 12.0% 8.7% 3.4% 0.1%
Meredith Moran 10.6% 11.0% 10.1% 12.4% 10.1% 11.3% 11.3% 8.5% 6.3% 4.2% 2.7% 1.5% 0.0%
Richie Gordon 7.9% 7.6% 9.1% 7.6% 10.1% 11.5% 10.2% 10.4% 8.2% 7.8% 7.7% 1.9% 0.0%
Adam Krzeszowski 5.4% 4.5% 5.8% 5.8% 5.9% 9.3% 7.0% 9.4% 12.2% 12.4% 14.2% 7.8% 0.3%
Tyler Mowry 13.2% 13.3% 13.1% 11.0% 12.3% 10.4% 7.7% 7.5% 5.1% 4.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0%
Andrew Vernon 0.8% 1.2% 1.1% 1.8% 1.6% 2.7% 2.2% 5.1% 7.0% 6.4% 12.5% 52.8% 4.8%
Stephen Turocy 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 1.2% 3.5% 93.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.