Race 11A

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Tyler Mowry 12.3% 12.1% 12.8% 11.2% 11.4% 11.1% 7.9% 8.7% 5.6% 4.2% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Richie Gordon 7.6% 7.8% 9.1% 9.5% 9.8% 11.8% 8.4% 10.0% 10.6% 7.7% 6.1% 1.6% 0.0%
Christian Spencer 12.9% 13.0% 12.9% 11.3% 12.3% 10.3% 10.0% 6.3% 6.2% 3.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Gerard Eastman 8.3% 10.0% 9.4% 11.1% 10.1% 10.0% 11.3% 7.7% 8.7% 8.2% 4.4% 0.8% 0.0%
Adam Krzeszowski 5.0% 4.9% 5.2% 7.4% 7.6% 7.3% 7.4% 9.5% 11.2% 12.9% 13.8% 7.6% 0.2%
Kyle Easton 22.5% 21.9% 13.9% 12.2% 10.9% 6.4% 6.0% 3.1% 1.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Ella Withington 7.1% 6.7% 8.4% 6.4% 6.2% 9.7% 9.4% 11.2% 11.1% 10.6% 9.7% 3.3% 0.2%
Sherman Thompson 3.2% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0% 5.3% 6.6% 9.3% 9.2% 10.8% 15.3% 14.7% 10.7% 0.3%
Meredith Moran 10.7% 9.7% 12.1% 10.9% 12.1% 9.6% 9.0% 8.6% 6.3% 6.4% 3.7% 0.9% 0.0%
David Perez 5.3% 4.2% 5.1% 5.8% 7.0% 7.4% 8.9% 10.6% 10.1% 11.8% 15.0% 8.4% 0.4%
Aidan Molesky 4.0% 3.9% 5.4% 6.9% 5.3% 7.4% 9.0% 10.9% 11.7% 11.8% 15.1% 8.1% 0.5%
Andrew Vernon 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 2.3% 1.9% 2.3% 3.1% 3.9% 5.8% 6.8% 13.0% 53.4% 4.8%
Stephen Turocy 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 4.3% 93.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.