Race 12A

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Kyle Easton 23.0% 18.1% 15.9% 12.7% 11.2% 8.3% 4.7% 2.4% 2.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Richie Gordon 7.2% 7.2% 9.8% 10.6% 10.3% 10.5% 7.8% 10.9% 9.6% 8.8% 5.2% 2.1% 0.0%
Tyler Mowry 10.7% 13.5% 12.8% 11.7% 10.9% 10.9% 8.9% 8.2% 5.8% 4.4% 1.4% 0.8% 0.0%
Gerard Eastman 9.6% 8.8% 9.2% 11.9% 10.2% 9.7% 11.3% 8.2% 8.3% 5.9% 5.4% 1.3% 0.2%
Meredith Moran 11.2% 11.5% 12.2% 9.7% 10.2% 10.0% 11.2% 9.6% 5.6% 5.0% 2.7% 1.0% 0.1%
Christian Spencer 13.4% 14.5% 14.6% 11.0% 11.6% 8.5% 8.1% 7.0% 5.0% 4.2% 1.4% 0.7% 0.0%
Ella Withington 6.9% 7.0% 7.1% 7.6% 8.0% 8.7% 10.1% 9.5% 11.2% 10.5% 8.9% 4.3% 0.2%
Adam Krzeszowski 4.2% 5.8% 4.2% 7.1% 5.4% 8.3% 9.1% 9.6% 12.3% 13.6% 13.3% 6.9% 0.2%
Sherman Thompson 3.8% 4.1% 4.2% 5.3% 6.2% 6.5% 8.3% 10.2% 13.0% 10.9% 16.5% 10.4% 0.6%
Aidan Molesky 4.8% 4.5% 4.2% 4.9% 6.6% 7.6% 9.2% 10.0% 9.9% 12.0% 15.3% 10.6% 0.4%
Andrew Vernon 1.2% 0.9% 1.0% 2.0% 2.7% 2.5% 3.6% 4.0% 6.0% 8.1% 15.3% 48.3% 4.4%
Stephen Turocy 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.9% 3.5% 93.8%
David Perez 3.9% 4.1% 4.7% 5.5% 6.6% 7.9% 7.6% 10.3% 10.9% 14.8% 13.5% 10.1% 0.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.