Race 13A

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Christian Spencer 13.6% 13.0% 12.5% 11.5% 12.9% 9.4% 9.2% 7.6% 5.2% 3.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0%
Kyle Easton 21.9% 19.8% 16.6% 12.7% 9.5% 8.0% 5.6% 2.3% 2.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Richie Gordon 6.4% 7.6% 10.6% 9.4% 8.6% 11.4% 10.4% 10.0% 9.6% 8.5% 5.5% 1.8% 0.2%
Adam Krzeszowski 3.7% 4.8% 4.6% 6.0% 8.4% 7.9% 8.1% 9.7% 10.6% 13.1% 15.3% 7.3% 0.5%
Tyler Mowry 13.2% 13.7% 12.2% 11.0% 9.9% 10.7% 10.0% 6.7% 6.3% 3.5% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Sherman Thompson 4.1% 3.9% 5.3% 5.2% 6.4% 6.2% 7.6% 9.8% 11.4% 13.9% 15.7% 10.2% 0.3%
Meredith Moran 11.5% 11.5% 10.7% 9.8% 10.9% 12.0% 9.7% 8.0% 7.6% 4.7% 2.6% 1.0% 0.0%
Ella Withington 6.2% 7.3% 5.4% 8.8% 7.6% 9.5% 9.7% 11.4% 11.4% 10.5% 8.4% 3.7% 0.1%
David Perez 4.3% 5.0% 4.9% 5.7% 6.1% 5.8% 9.2% 11.2% 10.1% 13.4% 15.3% 8.4% 0.6%
Gerard Eastman 10.3% 8.9% 9.6% 11.4% 10.5% 9.9% 9.2% 9.1% 8.3% 6.3% 4.9% 1.6% 0.0%
Aidan Molesky 3.6% 3.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.2% 6.6% 8.1% 9.2% 12.2% 14.9% 13.4% 8.2% 0.6%
Andrew Vernon 1.1% 0.8% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 4.7% 5.2% 6.8% 13.0% 52.9% 4.6%
Stephen Turocy 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 1.2% 4.1% 93.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.