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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.43+3.78vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College1.88+4.09vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+2.40vs Predicted
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4University of Wisconsin2.24+1.24vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14-1.81vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.12-0.55vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.55-0.24vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.54-3.57vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University1.81-2.71vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan0.34-0.66vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.20-1.48vs Predicted
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12Washington College-1.86-0.02vs Predicted
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13University of Pittsburgh-2.59-0.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.78Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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6.09SUNY Maritime College1.880.1%1st Place
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5.4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.170.1%1st Place
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5.24University of Wisconsin2.240.1%1st Place
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3.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.3%1st Place
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5.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.120.1%1st Place
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6.76Boston University1.550.1%1st Place
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4.43Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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6.29Jacksonville University1.810.1%1st Place
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9.34University of Michigan0.340.0%1st Place
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9.52U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.200.0%1st Place
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11.98Washington College-1.860.0%1st Place
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12.52University of Pittsburgh-2.590.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Schofield | 11.5% | 11.9% | 14.6% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cormac Murphy | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 8.5% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Bartel | 10.0% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jake Vickers | 25.8% | 21.8% | 15.6% | 12.1% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sinead McManus | 8.8% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Skye Shepherd | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 16.1% | 12.1% | 7.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Lilly Myers | 14.0% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Ikeda | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 13.9% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ryan O'Connor | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 11.1% | 22.0% | 34.6% | 7.6% | 1.0% |
| Sunrae Sturmer | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 9.9% | 23.7% | 33.6% | 9.9% | 0.9% |
| John Mecca | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 3.2% | 7.5% | 53.6% | 31.9% |
| McKenzie Brown | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 27.6% | 66.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.