Race 3B

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Jake Vickers 25.2% 20.2% 16.2% 12.7% 10.7% 6.6% 4.9% 1.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sinead McManus 8.6% 8.1% 11.1% 10.5% 10.2% 12.0% 10.2% 11.5% 10.0% 5.1% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Phillip Schofield 10.3% 13.9% 12.3% 10.7% 11.4% 11.5% 12.3% 8.9% 5.1% 3.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Samuel Bartel 10.1% 10.2% 9.4% 12.2% 11.7% 9.8% 11.9% 10.5% 9.2% 3.3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Skye Shepherd 5.9% 4.9% 5.8% 8.9% 7.7% 7.7% 10.0% 13.2% 17.2% 12.8% 5.1% 0.7% 0.1%
Cormac Murphy 7.3% 8.2% 7.4% 8.9% 10.6% 10.4% 12.4% 10.5% 11.3% 8.9% 3.7% 0.4% 0.0%
Nathan Ikeda 7.7% 7.4% 9.6% 6.5% 7.1% 10.4% 11.1% 14.4% 12.8% 8.9% 3.7% 0.4% 0.0%
Lilly Myers 13.6% 12.6% 12.4% 13.4% 13.4% 12.8% 7.9% 6.4% 4.7% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Ryan O'Connor 1.4% 1.6% 2.5% 1.9% 3.4% 3.4% 4.0% 5.5% 9.9% 21.5% 35.6% 8.6% 0.7%
Sunrae Sturmer 0.8% 1.8% 1.7% 3.1% 2.1% 3.1% 3.1% 4.9% 9.6% 24.4% 33.1% 10.6% 1.7%
Matthew Kickhafer 8.9% 10.7% 11.3% 10.9% 11.4% 11.6% 11.5% 11.1% 7.2% 3.8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Caroline Westrick 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 2.0% 4.6% 28.8% 62.3%
John Mecca 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 3.3% 7.8% 50.0% 35.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.