Race 4B

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Jake Vickers 25.2% 19.9% 17.2% 11.2% 11.4% 6.8% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Sinead McManus 8.4% 8.3% 10.5% 10.6% 11.8% 11.3% 11.1% 10.5% 9.3% 6.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Matthew Kickhafer 7.8% 9.4% 10.2% 13.7% 11.7% 9.5% 11.9% 11.5% 8.0% 4.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0%
Lilly Myers 14.0% 12.4% 13.0% 13.0% 12.3% 10.1% 9.7% 8.3% 4.6% 2.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Phillip Schofield 13.1% 14.2% 11.3% 11.2% 11.3% 11.4% 10.3% 7.3% 6.5% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Samuel Bartel 10.1% 10.9% 11.8% 11.7% 10.6% 10.8% 10.7% 9.5% 8.3% 3.6% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Cormac Murphy 8.2% 8.0% 8.3% 8.7% 8.8% 11.2% 10.7% 13.2% 10.8% 8.4% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Nathan Ikeda 6.2% 7.4% 8.6% 7.8% 10.0% 10.5% 11.4% 13.5% 11.7% 9.3% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Skye Shepherd 4.6% 5.9% 5.4% 6.8% 6.5% 10.5% 10.7% 12.5% 17.1% 13.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Ryan O'Connor 0.9% 2.0% 2.3% 2.6% 2.8% 3.4% 3.8% 6.2% 10.1% 21.0% 34.6% 9.1% 1.2%
Sunrae Sturmer 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% 2.4% 2.4% 3.9% 5.1% 4.7% 9.9% 23.8% 33.2% 9.9% 1.1%
Caroline Westrick 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 1.9% 4.6% 28.8% 62.6%
John Mecca 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.6% 1.0% 3.5% 7.8% 50.4% 35.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.