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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+4.26vs Predicted
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2University of Wisconsin2.24+3.14vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+0.18vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.12+1.42vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.43-0.40vs Predicted
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6Boston University1.55+0.72vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan0.34+2.14vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.54-3.59vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University1.44-1.94vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.16-0.05vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College1.88-5.23vs Predicted
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12Washington College-1.86-0.02vs Predicted
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13University of Pittsburgh-2.36-0.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.26U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.170.1%1st Place
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5.14University of Wisconsin2.240.1%1st Place
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3.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.3%1st Place
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5.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.120.1%1st Place
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4.6Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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6.72Boston University1.550.1%1st Place
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9.14University of Michigan0.340.0%1st Place
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4.41Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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7.06Jacksonville University1.440.1%1st Place
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9.95U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.160.0%1st Place
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5.77SUNY Maritime College1.880.1%1st Place
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11.98Washington College-1.860.0%1st Place
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12.38University of Pittsburgh-2.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Kickhafer | 9.9% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Bartel | 10.3% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jake Vickers | 25.4% | 20.9% | 15.9% | 13.0% | 10.5% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sinead McManus | 8.7% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Phillip Schofield | 12.9% | 14.4% | 13.1% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Skye Shepherd | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 14.6% | 14.4% | 11.9% | 5.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ryan O'Connor | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 10.6% | 26.4% | 27.1% | 8.0% | 0.8% |
| Lilly Myers | 13.5% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 13.0% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben McKissick-Hawley | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 13.8% | 16.7% | 15.0% | 5.6% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Maddie Talecki | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 8.9% | 19.7% | 38.0% | 14.7% | 2.8% |
| Cormac Murphy | 6.2% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 11.1% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Mecca | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 3.0% | 10.1% | 47.1% | 35.7% |
| Caroline Westrick | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 7.0% | 28.3% | 60.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.