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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Jake Vickers 25.0% 20.4% 17.5% 11.9% 10.9% 6.5% 4.3% 1.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Cormac Murphy 7.4% 7.5% 8.2% 8.1% 11.3% 10.8% 12.1% 14.1% 10.8% 6.8% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Sinead McManus 7.7% 10.4% 10.3% 11.1% 11.2% 11.8% 12.7% 10.9% 8.4% 4.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Ben McKissick-Hawley 3.7% 5.2% 5.4% 7.5% 7.4% 9.1% 10.8% 12.5% 15.5% 15.5% 6.6% 0.8% 0.0%
Maddie Talecki 1.5% 1.2% 1.3% 1.9% 1.7% 1.9% 3.1% 4.9% 7.6% 17.7% 40.0% 15.1% 2.1%
Matthew Kickhafer 11.2% 8.5% 10.8% 10.7% 12.1% 12.7% 10.8% 9.9% 7.7% 4.1% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Phillip Schofield 12.7% 13.3% 11.9% 12.8% 13.1% 10.1% 9.3% 8.4% 5.2% 2.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Skye Shepherd 4.6% 6.6% 5.6% 8.1% 7.2% 10.3% 12.3% 13.9% 14.9% 11.6% 4.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Samuel Bartel 10.4% 10.3% 10.3% 13.0% 9.7% 12.3% 11.4% 9.3% 8.7% 3.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Ryan O'Connor 1.1% 1.7% 2.9% 2.5% 2.5% 3.2% 5.0% 6.8% 13.0% 26.0% 27.7% 6.5% 1.1%
Lilly Myers 14.5% 14.5% 15.5% 11.8% 12.8% 10.7% 7.5% 6.6% 4.5% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
John Mecca 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 1.6% 3.9% 7.7% 48.5% 35.8%
Caroline Westrick 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.9% 2.6% 5.8% 28.5% 61.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.