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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+2.20vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College1.88+3.96vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.12+2.38vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University1.44+3.04vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.16+4.90vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17-0.78vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.43-2.36vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.55-1.34vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin2.24-3.84vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan0.34-0.82vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.54-6.72vs Predicted
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12Washington College-1.860.00vs Predicted
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13University of Pittsburgh-2.36-0.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.2%1st Place
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5.96SUNY Maritime College1.880.1%1st Place
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5.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.120.1%1st Place
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7.04Jacksonville University1.440.0%1st Place
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9.9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.160.0%1st Place
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5.22U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.170.1%1st Place
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4.64Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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6.66Boston University1.550.0%1st Place
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5.16University of Wisconsin2.240.1%1st Place
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9.18University of Michigan0.340.0%1st Place
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4.28Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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12.0Washington College-1.860.0%1st Place
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12.38University of Pittsburgh-2.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Vickers | 25.0% | 20.4% | 17.5% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cormac Murphy | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 14.1% | 10.8% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sinead McManus | 7.7% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ben McKissick-Hawley | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 6.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Maddie Talecki | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 17.7% | 40.0% | 15.1% | 2.1% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 11.2% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Phillip Schofield | 12.7% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Skye Shepherd | 4.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 13.9% | 14.9% | 11.6% | 4.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Bartel | 10.4% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan O'Connor | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 13.0% | 26.0% | 27.7% | 6.5% | 1.1% |
| Lilly Myers | 14.5% | 14.5% | 15.5% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Mecca | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 3.9% | 7.7% | 48.5% | 35.8% |
| Caroline Westrick | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 5.8% | 28.5% | 61.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.