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📊 Prediction Accuracy
69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+4.26vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.43+2.68vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.54+1.43vs Predicted
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4Boston University1.55+2.86vs Predicted
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5University of Wisconsin2.24+0.11vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.12-0.64vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College1.88-1.09vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University1.81-1.89vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan0.34+0.33vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-6.02vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.20-1.52vs Predicted
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12Washington College-1.86-0.02vs Predicted
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13University of Pittsburgh-2.59-0.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.26U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.170.1%1st Place
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4.68Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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4.43Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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6.86Boston University1.550.1%1st Place
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5.11University of Wisconsin2.240.1%1st Place
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5.36Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.120.1%1st Place
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5.91SUNY Maritime College1.880.1%1st Place
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6.11Jacksonville University1.810.1%1st Place
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9.33University of Michigan0.340.0%1st Place
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3.98Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.2%1st Place
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9.48U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.200.0%1st Place
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11.98Washington College-1.860.0%1st Place
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12.51University of Pittsburgh-2.590.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Kickhafer | 10.4% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Phillip Schofield | 12.7% | 12.8% | 13.3% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lilly Myers | 13.6% | 13.5% | 15.3% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Skye Shepherd | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 17.1% | 13.8% | 6.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Bartel | 11.1% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 4.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sinead McManus | 9.7% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cormac Murphy | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 11.4% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Ikeda | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 13.6% | 12.2% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan O'Connor | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 9.5% | 21.8% | 35.6% | 8.3% | 0.7% |
| Charles Carraway | 18.4% | 16.7% | 15.6% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sunrae Sturmer | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 9.7% | 23.8% | 32.6% | 10.1% | 0.9% |
| John Mecca | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 4.0% | 7.1% | 53.7% | 31.7% |
| McKenzie Brown | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 4.0% | 26.6% | 66.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.