Race 10B

david-lee-arnoff

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Charles Carraway 17.7% 15.7% 14.0% 13.7% 11.2% 9.0% 9.3% 4.7% 2.4% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Sinead McManus 9.1% 9.3% 10.9% 9.7% 12.3% 10.1% 10.3% 11.6% 8.4% 6.2% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Samuel Bartel 9.7% 12.1% 10.7% 12.0% 11.2% 9.0% 12.4% 9.9% 8.4% 3.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Skye Shepherd 4.5% 5.7% 5.8% 8.2% 8.2% 7.8% 10.4% 13.2% 15.7% 12.7% 6.9% 0.9% 0.0%
Lilly Myers 16.1% 15.1% 13.3% 10.7% 11.8% 12.0% 7.1% 7.2% 4.2% 2.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Matthew Kickhafer 10.9% 9.7% 11.6% 12.3% 9.8% 10.7% 10.1% 9.7% 8.8% 4.2% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Nathan Ikeda 8.4% 7.3% 8.5% 8.4% 8.5% 9.7% 11.2% 12.1% 13.7% 8.1% 3.7% 0.3% 0.1%
Phillip Schofield 13.2% 13.6% 12.1% 12.2% 11.6% 13.2% 9.9% 6.7% 4.1% 2.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Cormac Murphy 7.8% 7.5% 9.1% 8.5% 8.1% 11.2% 11.8% 11.7% 11.5% 9.8% 2.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Ryan O'Connor 0.9% 2.5% 2.7% 2.1% 3.5% 2.6% 3.6% 6.5% 9.9% 22.5% 33.3% 9.0% 0.9%
Sunrae Sturmer 1.3% 1.4% 1.0% 2.1% 3.3% 4.3% 3.2% 5.5% 11.3% 21.7% 34.8% 9.2% 0.9%
McKenzie Brown 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.9% 4.3% 26.0% 67.2%
John Mecca 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 3.4% 8.2% 53.8% 30.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.