← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
83.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
6
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Catholic University of America-1.77+1.90vs Predicted
-
2University of Virginia-2.73+1.97vs Predicted
-
3North Carolina State University-1.69-0.25vs Predicted
-
4University of Virginia-0.44-2.41vs Predicted
-
5American University-3.09-0.52vs Predicted
-
6University of Maryland-4.02-0.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.9Catholic University of America-1.770.1%1st Place
-
3.97University of Virginia-2.730.0%1st Place
-
2.75North Carolina State University-1.690.2%1st Place
-
1.59University of Virginia-0.440.6%1st Place
-
4.48American University-3.090.0%1st Place
-
5.32University of Maryland-4.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Lukas | 13.6% | 27.2% | 28.3% | 19.9% | 8.8% | 2.2% |
| Hannah Lothrop | 4.9% | 11.2% | 16.5% | 28.1% | 27.7% | 11.6% |
| Conor Murphy | 17.9% | 26.7% | 28.1% | 18.9% | 7.1% | 1.3% |
| Matthew Weisenfluh | 59.0% | 26.5% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Charles Degen | 3.7% | 5.8% | 11.7% | 20.3% | 35.0% | 23.5% |
| Elizabeth Keller | 0.9% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 9.9% | 20.9% | 61.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.