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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.25+4.33vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.35+6.80vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.82+3.80vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland1.38+8.38vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.32+3.65vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.49+1.99vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+4.59vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.50-0.10vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University1.89+1.47vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University2.31-1.06vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.78-4.08vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.41-3.32vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy2.17-3.83vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.45-2.09vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University2.18-5.84vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University1.63-4.34vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University1.93-6.52vs Predicted
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18St. Mary's College of Maryland0.87-3.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.33U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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8.8George Washington University2.350.1%1st Place
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6.8Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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12.38St. Mary's College of Maryland1.380.0%1st Place
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8.65St. Mary's College of Maryland2.320.1%1st Place
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7.99U. S. Naval Academy2.490.1%1st Place
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11.59St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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7.9George Washington University2.500.1%1st Place
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10.47Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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8.94Christopher Newport University2.310.1%1st Place
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6.92George Washington University2.780.1%1st Place
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8.68George Washington University2.410.1%1st Place
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9.17U. S. Naval Academy2.170.1%1st Place
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11.91Old Dominion University1.450.0%1st Place
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9.16Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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11.66Christopher Newport University1.630.0%1st Place
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10.48Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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14.2St. Mary's College of Maryland0.870.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Bayless | 13.7% | 13.9% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Timms | 5.2% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 8.9% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Jack Hemmelgarn | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 13.3% | 15.1% |
| Joshua Paper | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| Gray Benson | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 8.3% |
| Matthew Priebe | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Spencer Charney | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.2% |
| Javier Gonzalez Rotge | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| Anthony Minder | 9.2% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Soenke Jordan | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| Louis Margay | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.6% |
| Frank Frisinger | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 11.4% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.0% |
| Brian Fox | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 10.2% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% |
| Christopher Booher | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 14.0% | 32.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.