← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Old Dominion University2.82+5.51vs Predicted
-
2U. S. Naval Academy3.25+2.92vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Naval Academy2.49+4.73vs Predicted
-
4Old Dominion University2.18+4.66vs Predicted
-
5George Washington University2.50+2.45vs Predicted
-
6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+5.03vs Predicted
-
7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.32+1.22vs Predicted
-
8George Washington University2.78-1.64vs Predicted
-
9St. Mary's College of Maryland1.38+2.96vs Predicted
-
10Old Dominion University1.45+1.94vs Predicted
-
11Christopher Newport University1.11+2.08vs Predicted
-
12George Washington University2.35-3.61vs Predicted
-
13George Washington University2.41-5.28vs Predicted
-
14U. S. Naval Academy2.17-5.48vs Predicted
-
15Christopher Newport University1.63-4.02vs Predicted
-
16Old Dominion University1.93-6.20vs Predicted
-
17Christopher Newport University0.79-2.89vs Predicted
-
18St. Mary's College of Maryland0.87-4.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.51Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
-
4.92U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
-
7.73U. S. Naval Academy2.490.1%1st Place
-
8.66Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
-
7.45George Washington University2.500.1%1st Place
-
11.03St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
-
8.22St. Mary's College of Maryland2.320.1%1st Place
-
6.36George Washington University2.780.1%1st Place
-
11.96St. Mary's College of Maryland1.380.0%1st Place
-
11.94Old Dominion University1.450.0%1st Place
-
13.08Christopher Newport University1.110.0%1st Place
-
8.39George Washington University2.350.1%1st Place
-
7.72George Washington University2.410.1%1st Place
-
8.52U. S. Naval Academy2.170.1%1st Place
-
10.98Christopher Newport University1.630.0%1st Place
-
9.8Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
-
14.11Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
-
13.62St. Mary's College of Maryland0.870.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dreugh Phillips | 9.4% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Connor Bayless | 13.6% | 13.2% | 14.4% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Gray Benson | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% |
| Matthew Priebe | 8.0% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% |
| Joshua Paper | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Anthony Minder | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jack Hemmelgarn | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 7.8% |
| Frank Frisinger | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 8.6% |
| Daniel Hodges | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 14.0% | 16.9% |
| Owen Timms | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Soenke Jordan | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Louis Margay | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Brian Fox | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 5.4% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 2.4% |
| David Grace | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 16.8% | 26.8% |
| Christopher Booher | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 15.7% | 21.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.